For crude oil fundamental analysis, EIA data is a must-read, if not more emphasized. These data sets are published on daily, weekly, monthly and annual basis. The daily data include the spot prices of crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. and selected international areas, as well as futures price at NYMEX. EIA archived the historical data of these daily prices.
Prime Supplier Report, which measures primary petroleum product deliveries into the U.S. where they are locally marketed and consumed. At last, the annual publications include: U.S. Crude Oil/Natural Gas/Natural Gas Liquids Reserves Annual Report, Petroleum Supply Annual, Petroleum Marketing Annual and Refinery Capacity Report.
What is really valuable of the EIA data repository is that not only raw market
data are provided; a researcher could also get access to a compilation of
frequently updated analyses and forecasts. There are great quantities of analyses
of other economic fundamentals about crude oil.
Supply-and-Demand Balances
For the global oil industry, oil trade represents the close connection between
two main centers of activity: upstream exploration and production, as well
as downstream refining and marketing. The interactions between the upstream
and the downstream largely determine crude oil supply-and-demand balancing
dynamics. Mechanisms of such interactions are as following: Upstream parties
are the major sellers of crude oil, and their productions are valued by downstream
demand; While downstream parties are the major buyers of crude oil, and the
cost of their feedstock is determined by the upstream supply. Operational
decisions about combining output from various fields to create a specific
crude oil export stream with certain characteristics are constantly tested
in the market against the requirements of refiners for specific feedstock
to meet final demand for a changing combination of products. The downstream
marketing prices of the petroleum products, such as heating oil, gasoline,
propane, aviation oil and kerosene are also determinants of crude oil price.
Geopolitical Factors
Just as the lack of surplus capacity is related to the growth in global demand,
the impact on prices due to geopolitical risks is related to the lack of surplus
capacity. If surplus capacity were sufficient to make up for any reasonable
likelihood of a loss in supply, then the risks would not have as great an
impact on price. However, because there is very limited surplus capacity,
concerns about potential or existing supply problems in Nigeria, Iran, Iraq,
Venezuela, and elsewhere, have exacerbated price increases related to the
supply-and-demand factor above. Or put another way, these risks to supply
would not be putting as much upward pressure on prices if fundamentals were
not tight to begin with.
